The price of French oak reached new heights between 2022 and 2024, driven by strong global demand and post-Covid supply tensions. Since then, the market has changed direction. Consolidated data for 2025 and the first half of 2026 paint a more nuanced picture, balancing price corrections and persistent uncertainties in the wood sector as a whole.
Price of standing oak in 2025-2026: the correction after the peak
Recent figures contradict the hypothesis of a new surge in oak prices. According to the Caisse des Dépôts, the average price of standing oak fell by 17% between 2024 and 2025, dropping from 228 €/m³ to 190 €/m³. This decline marks the end of a bullish cycle that saw prices double in just a few years.
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The ONF series analyzed by Sylvie Forêt confirm this trend for 2026. The median price of standing oak is around 136 €/m³, with half of the lots sold between 85 and 195 €/m³ from a sample of 731 lots representing over 310,000 m³.
In the most recent sales (June-July 2026), oak is priced at 140 €/m³, down 1.1% compared to the previous twelve months. A detailed analysis of wood prices in 2026 shows that this stabilization reflects a market digesting the excesses of the previous period rather than a sudden collapse.
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The general index of standing wood prices, across all species, is also declining: 86 €/m³ in 2026 compared to 90 €/m³ in 2025, representing a decrease of 4% according to the Caisse des Dépôts.
Softwoods and construction timber: where the tension shifts
While oak prices are stabilizing, pressure does not disappear from the wood market. It migrates to other segments. Softwoods, particularly Douglas fir, are now the focus of tensions.
The North American context weighs on the entire market. Lumber prices quoted in Chicago fell to 613.50 USD for 1,000 board feet at the end of July 2026, down nearly 12% year-on-year. U.S. tariffs on Canadian wood products (nearly 35% duties) have forced production cuts and sawmill closures in Canada.
In Europe, the situation is different. Belgium reports a rise in softwood prices in the summer of 2026. The gradual recovery of construction, after months of slowdown due to high interest rates, is driving demand upward for structural species.
- Oak, primarily used in joinery, flooring, and cooperage, follows a market logic distinct from that of construction timber
- Douglas fir and spruce, valued in framing and timber structures, remain subject to supply tensions related to transatlantic trade
- Wood pellets are experiencing their own cycles, with a confirmed increase in September 2026 according to data from the French heating market
This segmentation of the wood market explains why speaking of a “wood price” in the singular no longer makes much sense. Each species and each use obey their own dynamics.
Risk factors for French oak by the end of 2026
The decline in oak prices does not mean that all tension has disappeared. Several factors could reverse or slow the ongoing correction.
Chinese demand and export markets
China remains a major buyer of European oak, particularly for furniture and flooring. Any recovery in Chinese demand would exert upward pressure on French logs. Field reports vary on this point: some traders observe a slowdown in Asian purchases, while others anticipate a rebound in the second half of the year.
Wildfires and resource availability
Wildfires in western Canada continue to threaten global wood availability. In France, the fire risk also weighs on forested areas, although oak, a slow-growing hardwood, is not the first affected. Any reduction in the overall wood supply mechanically benefits oak as a safe haven.
Regulation and decarbonization of the building sector
The RE2020 and decarbonization goals for the real estate sector push project owners toward construction timber. This structural dynamic benefits softwoods more than oak, but it maintains strong overall demand in the French wood sector.
Oak market in 2026: stabilization rather than new increase
The available data do not support a conclusion of a significant new increase in oak prices by the end of 2026. The most likely scenario remains one of stabilization around 130-140 €/m³ standing, following the correction of 2025.
Several factors support this reading:
- The 17% decline between 2024 and 2025 has already absorbed part of the post-Covid overheating
- Demand in construction, the main driver of previous increases, is shifting toward softwoods rather than oak
- The volumes offered for sale by the ONF remain substantial, with over 310,000 m³ of oak proposed in the latest campaigns
- The mortgage market, still constrained by high rates in France, is slowing new construction and limiting pressure on wood prices
However, a supply shock (wildfires, embargoes, logistical crises) could abruptly drive prices up, as the 2021-2022 episode demonstrated. The oak market remains cyclical and sensitive to geopolitical events.
For forest owners and buyers alike, the current period represents a point of equilibrium. French oak retains high value compared to its historical levels before 2020, even after the recent correction. The question is not so much whether prices will rise, but how quickly the construction market and international trade will regain a sufficient pace to exert lasting pressure on supply.